Based on such criteria as the number of housing construction permits issued, local employment rate, San Diego area stock prices and the growth rate of the national economy, our local economy is perhaps in the early stages of a recovery, according to the Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate located at the University of San Diego. A year ago, Alan Gin, an economist at the University of San Diego, thought that indicators suggested a recovery starting sometime in the first half of this year. He has now revised his thinking as the latest data suggests the possibility of a recovery beginning in the first quarter of this year. By spring, the economy could be noticeably improved.
Last fall, layoffs in the county decreased, the price of homes became a bit more stable or increased, and businesses started to hire new employees. While we previously expected an extended and slow recovery, it's beginning to appear that we won't have to go through the entire year for indications of real improvement.
The present question is whether or not the improvements in the economy will continue if there are more home foreclosures as more people who have lost their incomes default on their mortgage payments and the incentives for people to purchase homes come to an end.
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