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July 22, 2010

THE SHADOW INVENTORY
The so-called "Shadow Inventory" refers to the number of houses whose owners are either delinquent in making their payments (sixty days late), those who are in default and are on their way to foreclosure, and those who are at risk of becoming delinquent.

As of the end of the first quarter of 2010, 9.4 % or more of all mortgages in San Diego were delinquent. This figure represents not only those who have received Default Notices, but all of those who are presently in trouble. That is a lot of people who are in arrears on their mortgage payments.

The looming question is, "How many of these distressed properties will come on the market sooner, rather than later, as have-to-sell inventory?"

Lurking in the background are those loans that are not yet delinquent, but may possibly be so in the next few months or so. These would include those who have payment that are going to increase significantly sometime perhaps in the near future.

Also included are those borrowers who are in the process of trying to obtain a loan modification. It may well turn out that of those who are participating in these modification programs, many of them will default on the new mortgages that they are able to obtain.

As lenders are taking their time in foreclosing on delinquent borrowers and with modification programs holding up things, it is hard to determine how soon the Shadow Inventory may appear on the housing market.

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