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November 13, 2010

Looking at market conditions in San Diego County with Absorption Rate
In La Jolla last year 145 homes sold for under $500,000, that equals about 12 per month. Today there are 64 such Active listings. That means it will take about 5 months 10 days to absorb the 64 Active listing which suggests that prices will slowly rise. In some circles a 6 month abortion is considered a balanced market, fewer than 6 months is considered a seller's market and prices will rise, more than six months is considered a buyer's market and prices will fall. Understanding all the news reports s very frustrating, and realistically if the market were clearly and easily understood it would not make a headline. It seems that only sensationalized stories make the news. The reality in the San Diego County real estate market is that prices for real estate prices have fallen in many places, some more than others and the market is pretty much in a balanced position. Many home owners still owe more than their home is worth today and that makes it very difficult for many. But the GOOD NEWS is that most of the indicators show that home prices are in a slow but consistent recovery.

Here are some other examples:

In UTC / University City 115, 2 bedroom, 2 bath condos sold, in the last 12 months, today there is an inventory of 31 such condos that are Active listings for Sale. It would take about 110 days to absorb that inventory.

Scripps Ranch 39, 3 bedroom, 2 bath homes sold and today there are 12 Active listed for sale 3 Bedroom 2 bath homes that are on the market. That inventory will last about 3 months and 21 days, according to the market absorption theory.

Last year 26, 4 bedrooms, 3 bath homes in Carmel Valley (92130) between 2500 and 2700 Sq.Ft. were sold. Today there are 3 such homes listed for sale about a 42 day inventory.

In the luxury homes of Del Mar priced between $1,500,000 and $2,500,000 the picture is a little different there are 53 Active listed homes for sale, and in the last 12 months 33 homes in that price range sold in Del Mar. So the 53 listed homes in the inventory are about a 19 month supply.

When looking at a very specific group of homes in Rancho Bernardo; 3 bedrooms, 2 bath homes with between 1725 sq.ft. and 2000 sq.ft.. Ten such homes Sold last year and currently there is only one such home available for sale. Meaning about a 25 day inventory.

San Diego was reported as number three in the top ten real estate markets in the United States by several major news reporting agencies during the last couple of weeks. Each market is unique and needs to be carefully reviewed when considering either buying or selling. The Mills Team is ready to assist - call us.

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