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February 3, 2011

Real Estate Market at a Bottom? Looks like it!
The Chart below is of the "S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices" as published by "Macro Markets" a real estate consulting and research firm that looks at real estate investments and property derivatives. When I look at the chart it looks to me like the market is at its bottom or very close to it with a dramatic uptick in the next 12 months with about a 10% to 15% gain from its current level 12 to 24 months. While prices do not look like they will get to the 2004 levels in the foreseeable predictions they do appear to be stabilizing.

This is in sharp contradiction of the recent national housing reports that the news media widely reported, predicting another 12 months of declining home prices. If the hundred or so research economist that Macro Markets uses for their predictions and reports their publications have a strong degree of creditability with me. For me the media's job is to get my attention so I'll read or watch the rest of the story and the commercial. That's OK, but if this report by Macro Markets is correct the market is due for a "No Headline" recovery. The only headline I can see the media picking up in about 6 months is "You Missed the Bottom of the Real Estate Market". The media really seems to be the lagging indicator in this market, but in all fairness it has not been an easy market or economy to predict or forecast. It has looked scary at times but it hasn't helped having someone shouting at us - ITS SCARY - ITS AWFUL - ITS SCARY!

San Diego County and particularly Carmel Valley, La Jolla, the La Jolla Golden Triangle area around UTC and UCSD, the Carlsbad and the North Central part of the county seem to be leading the recovery while many other communities are following closely behind. San Diego County according to; actual sales numbers, and median price of home sales, and declining inventory figures is leading the nation in market strength, and prices are creeping upward. Check with the Mills Team about the specific neighborhood you are interested in for a complete analysis.

For first time home buyers have several advantages right now. Interest rates at a very low point if not at historic lows and prices are low, so buyers are looking at one of the best affordability indexes in a very long time.

If lenders can get on board now with interest rate loan modifications, the lingering dark cloud of people still upside down with their mortgages could go away and consumer confidence would rise. Then the economy, in this humble persons mind, could be in a strong recovery.

If it is time for you to consider a move in this real estate market call the Ruth Mills Team at 858-459-9109 or toll free at 888-450-6691 or email at RuthMills@MillsTeam.com for a consultation and an analysis of your home needs, wants and dreams.



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